How Spotcheck works

When you ask whether a spot-pricing plan is worth it, Spotcheck plays out a full year for your home — every five minutes — using real wholesale prices and a typical solar profile for your postcode. The savings number is the difference between that and what a flat-rate plan would have cost you.

That number is only useful if our simulation behaves like a real home would on the day. Here’s how we know it does.

A real home vs our simulation

Here’s data from what a real home controller does, compared to our simulation on the same day. The household: 13.3 kW of solar with a 13.5 kWh Powerwall 3 in Whyalla, SA. We compared 90 days of real five-minute data against what our simulation said the same home would do, with the same prices.

Pattern match
96%
across the comparison window
How closely the simulation's hour-by-hour pattern of importing and exporting tracks the real home's.
Bill match
98%
$2 off per month
Real bill $10/mo vs simulated $11/mo (negative = export-positive).
Battery activity, day shown
2.2×
full-battery cycles
Picked from the busiest 74 of 82 days, then chosen for closest match.
Representative dayMonday 23 March 2026
Partly cloudy32.8°C16.5°C0.0 mm rain

Top half: home consumption. Bottom half: feed-in to the grid. The shaded backdrop on each side shows what the battery did and the green line is its state of charge — real on the left (from the home’s telemetry export), simulated on the right (what the simulation decided). The shaded vertical band is the 4–7pm peak.

Real homefrom interval data
Home Feed in Battery Charge
12am6amnoon6pm12am
Simulatedour simulation, same prices
Home Feed in Battery Charge
12am6amnoon6pm12am

Where the data comes from

  • Wholesale spot prices. 5-minute regional reference prices published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Updated continuously through the day.
  • Typical solar profile. A typical-meteorological-year (TMY) per-kW solar series for your postcode, from PVGIS (the European Commission’s Photovoltaic Geographical Information System), which models long-run solar irradiance from satellite data.
  • Regional rooftop PV + predispatch.Half-hourly regional rooftop PV measurements and AEMO’s 30-minute predispatch forecasts, used for sensitivity analysis around the headline number.

What this isn’t

  • It isn’t a copy of any retailer’s controller. We don’t reverse-engineer any spot-passthrough retailer’s software. We solve our own version of the same problem — when to charge, when to discharge, when to import, when to export — against the same wholesale prices.
  • It isn’t a guarantee.Real homes have network rules and edge-case behaviour our simulation doesn’t model. Treat the savings figure as our best honest estimate, not a promise.
  • It isn’t a sales pitch.Sometimes the answer is “don’t switch.” That’s the whole reason this tool exists.