How Spotcheck works
When you ask whether a spot-pricing plan is worth it, Spotcheck plays out a full year for your home — every five minutes — using real wholesale prices and a typical solar profile for your postcode. The savings number is the difference between that and what a flat-rate plan would have cost you.
That number is only useful if our simulation behaves like a real home would on the day. Here’s how we know it does.
A real home vs our simulation
Here’s data from what a real home controller does, compared to our simulation on the same day. The household: 13.3 kW of solar with a 13.5 kWh Powerwall 3 in Whyalla, SA. We compared 90 days of real five-minute data against what our simulation said the same home would do, with the same prices.
Top half: home consumption. Bottom half: feed-in to the grid. The shaded backdrop on each side shows what the battery did and the green line is its state of charge — real on the left (from the home’s telemetry export), simulated on the right (what the simulation decided). The shaded vertical band is the 4–7pm peak.
Where the data comes from
- Wholesale spot prices. 5-minute regional reference prices published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Updated continuously through the day.
- Typical solar profile. A typical-meteorological-year (TMY) per-kW solar series for your postcode, from PVGIS (the European Commission’s Photovoltaic Geographical Information System), which models long-run solar irradiance from satellite data.
- Regional rooftop PV + predispatch.Half-hourly regional rooftop PV measurements and AEMO’s 30-minute predispatch forecasts, used for sensitivity analysis around the headline number.
What this isn’t
- It isn’t a copy of any retailer’s controller. We don’t reverse-engineer any spot-passthrough retailer’s software. We solve our own version of the same problem — when to charge, when to discharge, when to import, when to export — against the same wholesale prices.
- It isn’t a guarantee.Real homes have network rules and edge-case behaviour our simulation doesn’t model. Treat the savings figure as our best honest estimate, not a promise.
- It isn’t a sales pitch.Sometimes the answer is “don’t switch.” That’s the whole reason this tool exists.